Oliver Wyman forecasts that the wholesale banking market in China will grow at 10 per cent a year on average over the next decade,with annual revenues of Rmb4tn ($639bn) by 2020.
奥维咨询预计,未来十年中国批发银行市场的年均增长率将达10%,年收入到2020年将达到4万亿元人民币(合6390亿美元)。
However, Christian Edelmann, lead author of the study, said domestic banks would be the biggest winners because of government connections and deep balance sheets. Foreign banks would remain hampered by restrictions on what they were allowed to do.
但该报告第一作者克里斯蒂安·埃德尔曼(Christian Edelmann)表示,由于政府人脉强大、财务状况良好,中资银行将会成为最大的赢家。外资银行获准从事的业务范围有限,仍将没有太多施展拳脚的空间。
“The banks still believe that in five years’ time, the growth in the market will create better economics on shore and that’s a real fallacy, he said.
他表示:“外资银行仍相信,经过五年时间,市场增长将会创造更有利的在岸经济环境。这是一种错误的想法。
Foreign banks’ joint ventures in China remained sub-scale and suffered from poor profitability, he said. In the securities business, for example – which helps companies list on the Chinese stock exchanges –the foreign banks’ ventures have an average cost-to-income ratio of 90 per cent compared with an average of 60 per cent for domestic groups and 40 per cent for the top 20 domestic groups.
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