In this flammable setting, an American intervention in Syria or a military strike against Iran either by Israel or the US would be likely to set off a region-wide explosion. Iraq is still suffering from the divisive consequences of the US military invasion. It is on the brink of disruptive Sunni-Shia violence. It would not take much effort by Syria or Iran to ignite it. Nearby, Lebanon and Jordan are both also vulnerable.
在这种一触即发的背景下,美国对叙利亚出手干预,或者是以色列或美国对伊朗发动军事打击,都可能引发一场地区动荡。伊拉克仍在遭受美国军事入侵的分裂后果。该国濒临逊尼派-什叶派之间发生破坏性暴力冲突的边缘。叙利亚或者伊朗都能轻易引爆这场冲突。邻近的黎巴嫩和约旦也很容易受到冲击。
An explosive crisis in the region would have consequences elsewhere. The inevitable rise in the price of oil – prompted by increased insurance costs even were the Strait of Hormuz forcefully kept open by the US Navy – would wreak havoc on Europe’s financial recovery. Differences among European states would intensify. Britain would be tempted to distance itself from European allies in favour of becoming, in the Atlantic Ocean, the equivalent of America-dependent Japan in the Pacific.
该地区爆发的危机可能给其他地区带来后果。即使美国海军能够强制维持霍尔木兹海峡(Strait of Hormuz)畅通,但保险成本的增加仍不可避免地会导致油价上涨,从而给欧洲金融复苏带来冲击。欧洲各国之间的分歧可能加大。英国可能会与欧洲盟国保持距离,转而变得像依赖美国的太平洋国家日本,成为大西洋的“日本。
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2020-09-15
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