不过,独立后的苏格兰到底会是什么样?唯一理智的回答是,其实谁也不知道,因为答案将取决于这个假设已经独立的苏格兰与其国际伙伴(尤其是欧盟和失去苏格兰后的英国政府)之间的长期谈判。谈判将包括许多问题,从货币、财政协调和移民政策,到增值税分配、累积养老金权利(accumulated pension right)和海洋边界。
To ask either proponents or opponents of independence to explain how these issues would be resolved is a waste of time. A waste of time because both groups are presenting exaggerated pictures to rally support. A waste of time because initial positions are negotiating stances, not expectations of outcome. But most of all a waste of time because it is evident that few participants in the debate, on either side, have thought about the questions raised in any serious or specific detail.
不管是支持独立者还是反对独立者,询问他们对如何解决这些问题的看法都是浪费时间。之所以这样说,是因为两边都在夸大其词、以争取更多支持,也是因为两边的回答从一开始就是为了作为谈判的筹码、而非依据对结果的预期做出。但之所以这样说,最重要的原因是,辩论双方中很少有人严肃、具体地考虑这些问题的细节。
As was illustrated last week when the strange claim that Scotland’s membership of the EU would be automatic confronted its own reality. The supporting legal advice which the Scotland government had fought in the courts not to disclose turns out never to have existed. To suppose the first minister of Scotland could arrive uninvited in Brussels, no doubt accompanied by the pipes and guns of the Gordon Highlanders, to demand his rightful place at the top table, was perhaps the most ludicrous of romantic fallacies.
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