与英国的谈判也将十分棘手。英国财政部(UK Treasury)过去让出每一项权利时都免不了一番争斗,这种情形未来应该也不会改变。苏格兰人口在英国总人口中只占不到10%,使得它在与欧盟和英国的谈判中处于弱势地位——这种弱势对应的是资源和利益上的弱势。对苏格兰而言,谈判结果至关重要;但对其他所有人而言,整件事无关紧要、徒增纷扰。
These exchanges illustrate that, at a fundamental level, this debate is not yet serious. Current polls show the independence movement well short of a majority. But there are two wild cards – the considerable political skills of Alex Salmond, the SNP leader and Scottish first minister, and the unpopularity of the UK coalition government in Scotland. Still, the likely result is that the independence vote will be lost. But only if, and after, such a vote is won will a substantive process of working out what independence would actually entail in practice begin.
这些你来我往的交锋显示,这场关于独立的辩论就根本问题而言还没有严肃起来。目前民调显示,独立运动还远未获得多数人支持。但有两个可能改变大势的因素——苏格兰民族党党魁、苏格兰首席大臣亚历克斯·萨尔蒙德(Alex Salmond)高超的政治手腕,以及英国联合政府在苏格兰的惨淡人气。不过,独立公投的结果可能还是不会支持独立。但只有在公投结果支持独立之后,解决独立实际所涉及问题的实质性工作才会真正开始。
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