现在领导意大利的“技术官僚马里奥·蒙蒂(Mario Monti)曾言,他的榜样是杰出的反法西斯经济学家、在二战后成为该国第二任总统的路易吉·埃诺迪(Luigi Einaudi)。但在艾诺迪执政时期,世界正经历卖方市常一个有魄力的政府只要限制国内需求,阻止买方涌到政府门口。今天这种正统政策必须伴随着自由汇率,但欧元的存在已经排除了这种可能性。
Let us, however, continue in a lower key. The UK National Institute of Economic and Social Research recently published growth estimates for the EU showing no rise this year and 0.9 per cent for 2013. For the eurozone they showed rates of minus 0.4 per cent and plus 0.5 per cent respectively. For comparison global estimates are in the 3-4 per cent bracket. These may be swollen by high-fliers among emerging economies such as China. But even the US and Canada are shown with growth rates just above 2 per cent. The EU is also shown to be lagging in earlier years. And, for what they are worth, the forecasts show the gap increasing in years ahead. Nor by way of compensation are inflation rates any lower than the average of the OECD – if anything they are slightly higher. But to be fair they are slightly lower than the UK has achieved recently.
不过,我们要继续保持更低的姿态。根据英国国家经济社会研究院(National Institute for Economic and Social Research)最近发布的经济增长预测,今年欧盟经济不会出现增长,2013年将增长0.9%。欧元区今明两年的增长率将分别为-0.4%以及0.5%。相比之下,全球增长率预期在3-4%之间。而这一数字还可能被中国等一些新兴经济体拉高。但即使是美国和加拿大,经济增长率预计也将略微超过2%。欧盟在早些年也表现落后。而且,该研究院的预测(我们姑且相信)显示,未来几年这种差距将越来越大。另一方面,通胀率也不低于经合组织(OECD)的平均水平——甚至还会略微高一些。但平心而论,欧盟的通胀率略低于英国在近期的通胀水平。
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