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紧缩政策有悖经济常识

More than four years after the financial crisis began, the world’s major advanced economies remain deeply depressed, in a scene all too reminiscent of the 1930s. The reason is simple: we are relying on the same ideas that governed policy during that decade. These ideas, long since disproved, involve profound errors both about the causes of the crisis, its nature and the appropriate response.

金融危机爆发距今已有4年多时间，世界主要发达经济体仍极不景气，这一切太容易让人联想起上世纪30年代了。原因很简单：如今我们遵循的思想，正是指导那十年里各项政策的思想。自那以后，这些思想已被证明是错误的，在危机的起因、性质和适宜的应对方法方面都存在严重错误。

These ideas have taken root in the public consciousness, providing support for the excessive austerity of fiscal policies in many countries. So the time is ripe for a manifesto in which mainstream economists offer the public a more evidence-based analysis of our problems.

这些思想已在公众观念中扎根，正为许多国家的过度财政紧缩政策提供着支持。因此，如今主流经济学家向公众纠正这些思想的时机已经成熟，我们要提供一份对眼下问题更加实事求是的分析。

The causes. Many policy makers insist that the crisis was caused by irresponsible public borrowing. With very few exceptions – such as Greece – this is false. Instead, the conditions for the crisis were created by excessive private sector borrowing and lending, including by over-leveraged banks. The bursting of this bubble led to large falls in output and thus in tax revenue. Today’s government deficits are a consequence of the crisis, not a cause.