紧缩政策有悖经济常识_时事_双语阅读-查字典英语网

紧缩政策有悖经济常识

如果危机的情形不那么严重，我们或许能通过货币政策进行补救。但在利率已经接近于零的情况下，单凭货币政策无法挽救局面（尽管它本应竭尽全力）。当然，我们必须制定减少政府赤字的中期计划。但如果太急于在较近期内实施这样的计划，很可能弄巧成拙，因为这可能导致经济复苏流产。我们的当务之急是降低失业率，以防止失业变得过于普遍，从而加大经济复苏和未来减少赤字的难度。

How do those who support the existing approach respond to ours? They typically use two arguments.

现行方法的支持者们会如何反驳我们的观点呢？他们一般用两条理由来反驳。

The confidence argument. Their first argument is that government deficits will raise interest rates and thus prevent recovery. By contrast, austerity will increase confidence and encourage recovery.

第一条：信心。他们说，政府赤字将导致利率升高，从而阻止经济复苏。相反，紧缩将增强人们的信心，促进经济复苏。

But there is no evidence in favour of this argument. Despite exceptionally high deficits, interest rates are unprecedentedly low in all major countries where there is a normally functioning central bank. Interest rates are only high in some eurozone countries, because the European Central Bank is not allowed to act as lender of last resort to the government. Elsewhere the central bank can always, if needed, fund the deficit, leaving the bond market unaffected.