中国政府希望控制人民币汇率水平。在过去、中国政府更加依赖出口来支撑经济增长时,管制避免了人民币大幅升值。但如今情况变了。人民币贸易加权汇率的升值幅度已经较大,许多对冲基金经理认为,目前人民币币值基本处于合理水平。
Now, in a reversal of fears of undue appreciation, there are whispers in the capital as well as on the sidelines of the forum in Shanghai about a potential flight of capital, whether just out of the banks or, more alarmingly, out of the country altogether. The trigger could be benign, such as a rally in the stock market, which has been in the doldrums for years, attracting funds away from the banks. Or it could be something darker, such as riots in the streets.
如今,在北京以及上海陆家嘴论坛的非正式讨论中,风向逆转了。人们不再担心人民币过度升值,大家私下里议论的是出现资本外逃的可能性,无论资金是仅仅逃出银行系统,还是干脆逃离中国。其中,后一种情形是更令人担心的。触发资本外逃的导火索可能是好事,比如持续多年低迷的股市止跌回升(这会吸引资金从银行系统中流出),也可能是坏事,比如骚乱事件。
Fears of capital flight are one factor that keeps Beijing from lifting capital controls.
对资本外逃的担忧是中国政府目前尚不敢放开资本管制的原因之一。
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