But such liberalisation is a double-edged sword. The banks have thrived on the large gap between the rates at which they lend and what they pay out on deposits but now that is gap is narrowing. That is extremely inconvenient. Banks will need more capital to help them deal with bad debts from the last round of fiscal stimulus, which is always done through the banks.
但利率自由化是一柄双刃剑。存贷款高利差为银行带来了丰厚的利润,而如今利差正在降低,这将引发各种问题。银行将需要更多资本金,帮助它们消化上一轮财政刺激遗留下来的坏账。在中国,财政刺激总是通过银行来完成。
China continues to move toward capital account liberalisation as well. In the past, much of the demand for renminbi from the rest of the world was rooted in the expectation that the currency would appreciate. Now such expectations have vanished but demand remains in part because of a dollar shortage, especially in Asia.
中国也在继续推进资本账户自由化。在过去,海外人民币需求绝大部分来自人民币升值预期。如今这种预期已经消失,但海外人民币需求依然存在(尤其是在亚洲地区),部分原因在于美元短缺。
Beijing wishes to control the level of the renminbi. In the past, when Beijing relied more heavily on exports to support economic growth, controls kept the renminbi from appreciating too much. But times have changed. In trade-weighted terms, the renminbi has already appreciated a lot and many hedge fund managers think today the currency is about where it should be.
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