The most overlooked cause of the economic weakness in the US and Europe is what we call the “global currency wars. If all currency intervention were to cease, we estimate that the US trade deficit would fall by $150bn-$300bn, or 1-2 per cent of gross domestic product. Between 1m and 2m jobs would be created. The eurozone would gain by a lesser but still substantial amount. Countries that were engaged in intervention could offset the impact on their economies by expanding domestic demand.
在导致美欧经济疲弱的原因中,最未引起重视的一条就是我们所称的“全球汇率战。我们估计,如果所有的汇率干预行动都停下来,美国的贸易赤字将减少1500亿至3000亿美元,相当于其国内生产总值(GDP)的1%至2%。此外,还将创造出100万至200万个就业岗位。欧元区也将获益,虽然其贸易赤字减少幅度和新增就业岗位不及美国,但仍将非常可观。那些以往干预汇率的国家,可通过扩大内需来平衡停止干预汇率对其经济造成的影响。
China is by far the largest currency aggressor but has not been the major perpetrator of late. Three distinct groups are now involved. First are other Asian countries, including Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, Korea, Hong Kong, Thailand and Malaysia. Second are major oil exporters including the United Arab Emirates, Russia, Norway, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Algeria. Third are rich countries near to the eurozone, most notably Switzerland but also Denmark and Israel. If Mitt Romney is elected US president, he will be able to label many countries as currency manipulators on his first day in the Oval Office, not just China, as he has promised.
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2020-09-15
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