The political fan-fluttering, handclapping and finger-snapping that marked Spain’s path towards a rescue package would have made flamenco dancers proud. But, as the weekend’s crescendo passes, important questions remain. Will the proposed measures be adequate to recapitalise Spain’s banking sector – and is the country’s bailout dance really over?
香扇翻飞,合掌齐击,响指震耳——西班牙在寻求纾困过程中的政治表演,足以让弗拉门戈(flamenco)舞者引以为豪。然而,随着上周末的高潮退去,一些重要的问题仍未解决。拟议的措施是否足够对西班牙银行业进行资本重组?这个国家的纾困之舞真的结束了么?
The slow build-up to Spain’s banking crisis means numerous analyses are on offer. Multiplicity, though, does not bring unanimity. The International Monetary Fund thinks domestic bank capital buffers could be brought up to the new Basel III standards for an aggregate €40bn (mainly by bolstering second-tier banks). The promised assistance of up to €100bn would then provide a generous margin. But rating agency Fitch puts the requirement at €50bn-€60bn – or, if Ireland’s pattern of property-related losses repeats itself, €90bn-€100bn. Some private sector forecasts are even more pessimistic: Barclays Capital estimates a basic €70bn-€80bn, rising to €126bn in an extreme stress scenario.
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2020-09-15
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