The average age of death from liver disease is 59, compared with 82-84 for heart and lung disease and strokes, for example. It is the fifth largest cause of death in the UK, and in the past 10 years there has been a fivefold increase in cirrhosis for those aged between 35 and 55. Oben predicts that these figures are only going to get worse as obesity levels rise.
"About a third of the UK population is now obese, while one government estimate recently suggested that this figure will rise to 50% by 2050," said Oben. "Frankly, I think we will have reached that level long before then, and when we do that we will find that cirrhosis case numbers have increased steeply."
Nor will cirrhosis cases be the only ones to follow in the wake of Britain's increasing obesity levels. Cancers of the oesophagus, liver, pancreas and colon are linked to obesity; cases of these are increasing and are expected to continue to rise.
"Frankly, we are reaching US levels of obesity," said Oben. "I went to work in the US in 2001 and was stunned by the numbers of obese people that came into clinics. When I came back to Britain a few years later, I discovered – to my horror – that we are catching up."
As to the causes of this expected tidal wave of obesity-linked illness, scientists point to the increasing abundance of calorie-dense foods and a decrease in numbers of people taking regular exercise. In addition, Oben's own research has indicated that obese mothers may pass on a propensity for their offspring to become obese.
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