While this doesn’t mean that China’s leverage risks have been resolved, as the excessive debtaccumulation of prior years still needs to be dealt with, it does mean that debt challenges areno longer escalating, which is good news.
这并不意味着中国的杠杆风险得到了化解,之前几年累积的过多债务仍需解决,但它确实意味着,债务挑战不再加大,这是个好消息。
Resuming past excesses is not an option. China’s debt-to-GDP ratio is still relatively highcompared with other economies at a similar stage of development, so debt cannot be used toboost growth significantly in the near future without risking even more solvency issues later.
恢复过去那种过度举债的做法并不是办法。与处于类似发展阶段的其他经济体相比,中国债务与GDP的比率仍相对较高,因此近期中国不可能通过大幅举债来促进经济增长,否则以后就会面临更多的偿付问题风险。
The official non-performing loan ratio is set to keep rising through 2015 and beyond. Mostlikely not all of the bad debt will be recognised immediately, which comes with both benefits andpotential costs.
在整个2015年以及之后的一段时期内,官方不良贷款比率将会继续上升。最有可能的情况是,中国不会立即确认所有坏账,这既有好处也会带来潜在的成本。
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2020-09-15
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