预警: 金融世界过度膨胀的先兆_时事

预警: 金融世界过度膨胀的先兆

此外，当前并购热潮的背景令人不安。自2008年金融危机以来，美国企业利润飙升至创纪录的水平：例如，高盛(Goldman Sachs)估计，(不包括金融和公用事业企业在内的)标普500成分股企业的利润率大约为9%。在正常情况下，这理应引发企业投资热潮，实际上，这也是政策制定者一直渴望看到的。

But that has not occurred. On the contrary, investment as a proportion of operating cashflow has actually fallen from 29 per cent to 23 per cent in the past five years, Goldman says,apparently because companies are gloomy about the growth outlook.

但投资热潮并未出现。相反，高盛表示，投资占营业现金流的比例在过去5年里实际上已从29%下降至23%，这显然是因为企业对增长前景感到悲观。

This means they need to find other uses for their cash. Many have poured money into sharebuybacks: S&P 500 companies spent a record $133bn on buybacks in April this year,BlackRock says. They are paying hefty dividends, too. Indeed, analysts project that combinedoutlays on dividends and buybacks will exceed $1,000bn this year in America, more thanexpected spending on operations and research.

这意味着他们需要为资金找到其他用途。许多公司拿出大量资金用于股份回购：贝莱德(BlackRock)表示，今年4月，标普500成分股公司用于股份回购上的资金达到创纪录的1330亿美元。他们也派发了丰厚的股息。实际上，分析师预计，今年美国企业用于红利派息和股份回购的资金总额将会超过1万亿美元，高于预计的营运和研发支出。

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