这一模式不可持续。所以克鲁格教授非常合情合理地提出了两条建议:波多黎各必须推行结构性改革,比如削减福利支出和劳动力成本;同时也需要重组债务,使之回到更可持续的水平上。
But, as in Greece, it is unclear whether Puerto Rico’s government has the stomach forausterity. Worse still, the island’s debt structure is staggeringly complex, since the bondshave been issued by numerous different entities, with varying types of guarantees. Thesecreditors show no desire to co-ordinate; instead, they are threatening to sue each other andthe island. Thus the nightmare scenario that now haunts Puerto Rico is not so much that ofGreece but Argentina: years of legal limbo, shut out of the capital markets.
但是,正如在希腊一样,波多黎各政府是否有魄力实行紧缩政策尚不可知。更糟糕的是,该岛的债务结构极其复杂,因为债券是由数不清的不同实体发行的,担保的类型也各不相同。这些债权人没有表现出丝毫相互协调的意愿;相反,他们威胁着要相互起诉,并起诉波多黎各政府。这样一来,目前困扰着波多黎各的噩梦般的场景不是希腊式,而是阿根廷式的:多年的法律空白;被资本市场关在门外。
Is there a solution? In theory, as Lawrence Summers, a former Treasury secretary says, oneresolution would be for the International Monetary Fund to intervene. But it will not, sincePuerto Rico is not a sovereign state. Washington could play an IMF-style role if it chose, sincePuerto Rico, as a territory, is part of the federal system. But the Obama administration hasmade it clear it does not wish to intervene.
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