摩根大通资产管理(JPMorgan Asset Management)首席全球策略师大卫•凯利(David Kelly)估计,联邦基金利率(美联储主要利率目标)每上调1个百分点,较长期美国国债收益率在过去20年间平均仅上升了22个基点。
Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch notes that the prevailing view among their clients isthat the looming rate cycle “once again would show little increase in long term interest rates.Indeed, some investors believe that longer-term Treasury yields could actually fall as the Fedtightens monetary policy, as that would signal that the central bank’s officials are seriousabout controlling inflation, which hurts bond returns.
美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)的分析师指出,其客户中流行的看法是,即将到来的加息周期“将再次出现长期利率几近于零的增长。实际上,一些投资者认为,随着美联储收紧货币政策,较长期国债收益率实际可能会下降,因为收紧货币将表明美联储官员们控制通胀的决心,而这会损害债券收益。
That would mean that the “yield curve of US interest rates will flatten as longer-term yieldsstay steady or fall to near short term rates — or even invert. “I think it will be very difficult toengineer a steepening of the curve, says Pascal Blanqué, chief investment officer at Amundi,the French asset manager.
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