Yet some indicate she might be too sanguine. In a 2012 paper, Daniel Thornton at the StLouis Fed’s research division, noted that link between the Fed fund rate and the 10-yearTreasury yield had actually begun to disconnect as early as the late 1980s.
然而,一些人暗示,她可能过于乐观了。在2012年的一篇论文中,圣路易斯联邦储备银行(St Louis Fed)研究部的丹尼尔•桑顿(Daniel Thornton)指出,联邦基金利率与10年期美国国债收益率之间的关联,实际上早在上世纪80年代末就已开始脱钩。
“The major implication of this research is that the Fed’s interest rate policy may be much lesseffective than previously thought, he concluded.
“这一研究结果的主要揭示在于,美联储利率政策的作用可能远远不及先前的想象,他总结道。
For investors this is entirely unsurprising. They point out that while the US central bank can liftits Fed funds target, longer-term interest rates are mostly determined by longer-term factors,such as the economic outlook, inflation forecasts, demographics or global savings.
对投资者来说,这毫不足以为奇。他们指出,虽然美联储能够上调联邦基金目标利率,但较长期利率主要取决于较长期因素,如经济前景、通胀预期、人口结构或全球储蓄。
David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, estimates that for every 1percentage point change in the Fed funds rate — the main central bank interest rate target —longer-term interest rates on US Treasuries have over the past two decades risen by just 22basis points on average.
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