这意味着,随着较长期收益率保持稳定或下降至接近(甚至反而低于)短期收益率,美国利率的“收益率曲线将趋于平坦。法国资产管理公司Amundi首席投资官帕斯卡尔•布朗克(Pascal Blanqué)说:“我认为,要使这一曲线变陡将非常困难。
Nonetheless, investors should be wary of being too confident that the Fed is powerless inpreventing another conundrum. If longer-term Treasury bonds blow raspberries at anyinterest rate increases, it could encourage the central bank to tighten monetary policy lessgently than currently planned.
尽管如此,投资者应该避免过于相信美联储无力破解新一轮难题。如果面对任何加息,长期国债都无动于衷,这会鼓励美联储在收紧货币政策时力度比当前计划中的更强些。
“If the Fed tightens and the long end actually comes down significantly, then it would emboldenthe Fed, says Eric Stein of Eaton Vance.
亿廷繁世(Eaton Vance)的埃里克•斯泰因(Eric Stein)说:“如果美联储收紧政策,而长期国债收益率实际上大幅下降,那么这将会使美联储更加大胆。
Moreover, the US central bank still sits on a $4tn portfolio of Treasuries, agency debt andmortgage-backed bonds acquired in its quantitative easing programme, a potentially potenttool to control monetary policy.
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