The “spread of the 30-year Treasury yield over the five-year yield has climbed from a low ofjust 102 basis points at the start of the year to 149bps, but that is still well below the 250 bpspoints touched at the end of 2013. Treasury forwards also indicate that investors are bettingon the difference between short and longer-dated yields narrowing again in the coming years.
30年期国债与5年期国债的收益率差已经从年初仅102个基点的低位升至149个基点,但这仍远低于2013年底达到的250个基点。国债远期合约也表明,投资者正在押注未来几年短期与较长期国债间的收益率差再次缩小。
Ms Yellen herself does not appear to expect a replay of the conundrum that befuddled herpredecessor. In a recent speech she warned that the “term premium — the extra interestinvestors demand for lending over longer maturities — has come down dramatically, butexpressed more concern that it could rocket higher once the Fed starts raising rates. Indeed,her comments contributed to the spread widening.
耶伦自己似乎并未预料到曾让其前任迷惑的难题的再次出现。她在最近一次演讲中警告称,“期限溢价(termpremium,指投资者购买较长期限债券时索取的额外利息)已大幅下降,但对一旦美联储启动加息、期限溢价可能大幅上升表达了更多的担忧。事实上,她的言论已经导致了收益率差的扩大。
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