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中国放缓危及安倍经济学

As such, China’s growth rate has become as important to Japan as its exchange rate. A fall of1 percentage point in China’s domestic demand costs Japan 0.1 per cent of gross domesticproduct, while the hit from a percentage point fall in the renminbi is only 0.01 per cent. Were itjust a matter of the direct effect on Japan’s exports, the damage would be painful butcontained, but direct exports are the least of it.

因此，就像人民币汇率一样，中国经济增速也变得对日本很重要。中国国内需求下滑1个百分点，将导致日本国内生产总值(GDP)减少0.1%，而人民币汇率下滑1个百分点，将导致日本GDP减少0.01%。如果问题只是对日本出口产生直接影响的话，这种破坏将是痛苦的，但很有限，然而直接出口是最不重要的。

Whereas 18 per cent of Japan’s exports go to China, 54 per cent go to Asia as a whole, and aslowdown in China hurts all of the region’s economies. Japanese businesses may postponeinvestment in new export capacity at home, further hurting demand. japan export

日本有18%的出口流向中国，54%流向整个亚洲，而中国经济放缓会波及亚洲所有经济体。日本企业可能推迟对国内新的出口能力的投资，这将进一步影响需求。

The International Monetary Fund tries to model the effects of a Chinese downturn in its SpilloverReport. The 2014 edition finds a 1 percentage point shock to emerging market growth leads toa 0.5 percentage point fall in Japanese growth; five times bigger than the effect on the US.