全球大宗商品价格下跌令蒙古采矿业深受冲击。与此同时,据世界银行(World Bank)的数据,蒙古政府支出今年头八个月增加了42%。为了弥补税收收入的下降,蒙古政府向蒙古央行借款1.45亿美元,同时又给该国公务员加薪逾50%。蒙古目前通货膨胀率已高达15%。
Mongolia is 'prone to boom-bust cycles,' says Tim Condon, economist for ING. The question for investors is whether they can 'be confident that it won't just be a two-to-three-year run of growth and then another IMF program,' he says.
荷兰国际集团(ING)的经济学家康迪天(Tim Condon)说,蒙古容易出现繁荣-衰退的交替周期。他说投资者面临的问题是:是否有信心相信蒙古经济不会在繁荣了两三年之后又陷入需要IMF救助的境地。
A weakening currency could also hamper Mongolia's ability to pay back the bond. The Mongolian central bank has spent $800 million in currency markets to prevent the togrog from losing value against the dollar. Net currency reserves have dropped to $1.4 billion, a two-year low, according to the IMF.
货币贬值可能也会影响蒙古偿还债务的能力。蒙古央行已经在货币市场上投入了8亿美元以防止图格里克兑美元贬值。据IMF介绍,蒙古外汇储备净额下降至14亿美元,为两年来的最低点。
Government moves have soured the foreign-investment climate. Foreign direct investment is expected to be around $3 billion this year, said a Mongolian government official, down from $4.6 billion last year.
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