By any measure the outgoing 112th Congress is the most polarised in modern US history. Yet Republican and Democratic leaders are doing a surprisingly good job of seeming as though they might turn away from the fiscal cliff. Last week’s Oval Office meeting brought signs that Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate leader, is prepared to get along with Barack Obama. Even the diehards see a downside in being blamed for a self-inflicted recession.
美国第112届国会即将任满。无论从哪个角度来看,这届国会都是美国现代史上两党分化最严重的一届。不过,就眼下来说,共和党和民主党的领袖们居然干得有模有样——看上去,他们似乎有可能将美国从财政悬崖上拉回来。上周在总统办公室举行了会议,会上有迹象显示,参议院共和党领袖米奇·麦康奈尔(Mitch McConnell)已准备与巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)合作。看来,就连死硬派也明白,假如因为导致美国陷入一场“自找的衰退而受到众人指责,情况就不妙了。
There are two reasons to remain vigilant as Washington inches towards a possible compromise.
尽管华盛顿局势正朝着两党可能达成妥协的方向缓慢发展,但有关方面仍应保持警惕,原因有两点。
First, the US recovery remains tepid. Any action to avoid the cliff will involve some spending cuts and some tax increases – although far lower than the roughly $500bn that would result from the current policy course. Any tax increase would be confined to the top 2 per cent, which would not be sharply contractionary. However, it is vital that Congress extend the temporary payroll cut and unemployment insurance, which also expire at the end of year. Both have a big impact on demand.
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