然而,在某种程度上,对日本经济有益的东西可能会对政府债券市场不利。
Given that the only real catalyst for growth in Japan has been its exports, what the macro economy requires is a weak yen. But can Japan actually engineer a weaker yen without triggering a rise in yields on its debt?
鉴于日本经济增长唯一真正的催化剂就是其出口,因此宏观经济需要的就是弱势日元。但日本能够在不提高其债券收益率的情况下让日元走弱吗?
In the worst case scenario, the slide in the yen could be the catalyst for a rise in yields on Japanese government bonds, a market that is about the same size as the US Treasury market at between $11tn and $12tn. That in turn could set off a spiral in which non-yen based investors (a mere 8 per cent of the demand today, admittedly) insist on higher yields to compensate for possible losses on the currency, while Japanese banks, whose profitability has been minimal, would be looking at losses on their government bond holdings. In most cases, those holdings are larger than the banks’ domestic corporate loan books, as deposits from risk-averse households come into their coffers.
最坏的情况下,日元下滑可能会推高日本政府债券收益率,日本国债市场规模大约为11万亿到12万亿美元之间,与美国国债市场差不多。这可能会引发一个螺旋反应:非日元投资者(不可否认,现在他们只占需求的8%)要求提高日本国债收益率,从而弥补他们在日元上可能出现的损失,而盈利一直较低的日本银行手中持有的日本国债将出现亏损。大多数情况下,这些债券的规模要大于银行持有的国内公司贷款,因为它们吸收的存款来自规避风险的家庭。
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