Foreigners have been sceptical about the sustainability of the Japanese government debt burden for almost two decades. They have all the charts showing debt is now 220 per cent of gross domestic product on a gross basis. Yet, shorting the yen has been the graveyard trade for many hedge funds and some analysts estimate that hedge funds have lost more money shorting Japanese government bonds than on any other trade.
二十年来,外国人对日本政府债券的可持续性一直持怀疑的态度。很多数据表明,整体上来看,日本债务现在已经达到其GDP的220%。然而,对于很多对冲基金来说,做空日元资产就是一种“死亡交易,一些分析师估计,相比其他交易,对冲基金在做空日本政府债券方面的损失最多。
Still, to many the end game feels closer as recent data on the macro side looks ever more dire.
尽管如此,由于最近宏观层面上的数据更加糟糕,对于很多人来说,这种“终结游戏的脚步越来越近。
Japan’s economy contracted at a 3.5 per cent annualised rate for the past quarter and data for October suggest the economy will shrink again this quarter, according to JPMorgan. Exports in the third quarter were down 19 per cent on an annualised basis while industrial production was down more than 24 per cent. Japan has been running a trade deficit for 19 out of the past 20 months, according to data from Chris Wood of CLSA in Hong Kong, and registered a current account deficit in September for the first time since March 1981. Household savings will evaporate as Japan’s population continues to age. But macroeconomic factors have never been the definitive key to understanding what happens in Japan. Movements in the domestic financial markets still reflect the desires of the regulators. If interest rates show signs of moving up, the amorphous “they will use every lever they can to prevent the debacle.
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