摩根大通指出,过去一个季度日本经济同比收缩了3.5%,10月份的数据显示,第四季度经济还将收缩。第三季度出口同比下降了19%,而工业产出降幅则超过了24%。里昂证券(CLSA)驻香港分析师克里斯·伍德(Chris Wood)表示,过去的20个月中,日本有19个月处于贸易赤字中,9月份甚至还出现了1981年3月以来的第一次经常账户赤字。随着日本老龄化的继续,家庭储蓄将蒸发。但宏观经济因素从来不是理解日本状况的关键。国内金融市场的走势依然反映了监管机构的意愿。如果利率出现上涨的迹象,即使分歧再大,“他们也将用一切手段来避免这一灾难。
For example, some perceptive analysts see the decision to postpone the privatisation of Japan Post until the autumn of 2015 as a prudential measure designed to give regulators continued access to the captive deposits of its bank arm as another way to support the Japanese government bond market.
比如说,一些敏锐的分析师认为,将日本邮政(Japan Post)私有化推迟到2015年秋的决定,就是一个谨慎的措施,旨在让监管机构能够继续利用其银行分支的储蓄资金,作为支持日本政府债券市场的另一种方式。
At best, though, regulators can only postpone, not prevent. It is a measure of just how far Japan’s fortunes have faded that the debate about the future of the government bond market, corporate Japan and the banks is more a question of survival than of profitability.
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