我有个建议,也许可以稍稍减轻英国央行行长及其继任者的痛苦。通胀目标是1992年英国被迫脱离欧洲汇率机制(European Exchange Rate Mechanism)时由财政大臣诺曼·拉蒙特(Norman Lamont)首次提出的。当时提出这个目标的目的,是为了让经济主体(economic agent)放心,使他们相信英国不会放任通胀。如今,英国面临的危险不同了,我们应该转而把源自英国国内因素的通胀作为控制目标。
The separation would be neither easy nor non-controversial, but it could be attempted by any competent national income statistician. The BoE’s own charts show that inflation would have been both less volatile and less off-target measured in this way. One great attraction is that it would hold public servants responsible only for those things they can influence. Neither the chancellor nor the BoE governor would have to resign if the Strait of Hormuz were blocked or if there were an outbreak of hostilities in the South China Sea.
将源自英国国内因素的通胀与源自国外因素的通胀分开处理做起来不容易,也具有争议性,不过任何称职的国民收入统计学家恐怕都想这么干。从英国央行自己的图表能看出来,采用这种办法,通胀率的波动性会降低,其衡量结果也更接近预期目标。最大的好处是,这样一来,公务员们只需要为他们所能施加影响的事情负责。就算霍尔木兹海峡(Strait of Hormuz)被封锁、南中国海(South China Sea)开战,财政大臣和英国央行行长也都不需要辞职。
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