The BoE has reacted to strictures about relying too much on fallible forecasts by moving towards what has been called “the taxonomic approach to economic policy – in other words, listing possibilities as non-committally as possible. This tends to be based on “flow of funds analysis. The basic idea here is that if you take the main sectors of the economy – households, business corporations, the public and external sector and one or two others – net flows between them sum by definition to zero. So if you have an idea of either likely or needed changes in one or two sectors, you have a handle on the others.
有人批评英国央行过于依赖常常并不准确的预报,为应对这种批评,英国央行采取了一种所谓的“经济政策的分类学办法——换句话说就是,对可能发生的事情尽可能含糊其辞。这种办法应该是来自“资金流分析。其中的基本思想是,如果考虑经济的主要部门——家庭、企业、公共部门以及外部部门,还有一两个其他部门——那么,所有部门间的净资金流总和按定义应该为零。因此如果你有个想法,这个想法可能或必须改变其中的一两个部门,那么你也会改变其他部门。
I have always been profoundly suspicious of this type of analysis, even though it appeals to many economists as a way of bypassing doctrinal disputes. The trouble is that it says nothing about the level of output at which the zero balance is achieved. Nor – sound money advocates please note – does it tell you the level of inflation. For all I know, the financial balances summed satisfactorily to zero at the height of German hyperinflation in the 1920s.
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