欧元区真有理由乐观吗？_时事_双语阅读-查字典英语网

欧元区真有理由乐观吗？

如果你从最新事件退后一步，考虑一下宏观局面，你总是会回到同一些问题。这仅仅是一场流动性危机吗？若是，那么现已采取的措施应该足够了。或者，这是否是一场偿付能力危机？

The ECB’s support cannot help in the latter case because the central bank is not allowed, by its own legal definition, to write off or participate in a restructuring of any debt it holds. In case of a disorderly default, the country would lose access to the ECB and would probably have to leave the eurozone. The ECB’s programmes are premised on the idea that this is not going to happen.

在后一种情况下，欧洲央行的支持不可能有所裨益，因为根据其自己的法律定义，欧洲央行不得注销所持任何债务，或参与这些债务的重组。在无序违约的情况下，相关国家将失去欧洲央行的支持，很可能不得不离开欧元区。欧洲央行计划的前提设想是，这种情况不会发生。

Yet, as the preliminary report of the troika – International Monetary Fund, European Commission and ECB – shows, Greece’s debt is clearly not sustainable, even under optimistic assumptions. Portugal is about to fall into a black hole and so will Spain if the Spanish government continues trying to fix a private sector debt problem through public sector austerity. With a total fiscal correction of close to 10 per cent of gross domestic product (to be achieved over several years) and a fiscal multiplier of 1.5, you are looking at a decline of at least 15 per cent in GDP. In Spain’s case it would probably be higher, as the banking sector’s losses would be much higher in a depression – and there is no additional loss absorption left.