Chance events play a much larger role in life than many people once imagined.
偶然事件对于命运的改变,比许多人以前想象的要大得多。
Most of us have no difficulty recognizing luck when it’s on conspicuous display, as when someone wins the lottery. But randomness often plays out in subtle ways, and it’s easy to construct narratives that portray success as having been inevitable. Those stories are almost invariably misleading, however, a simple fact that has surprising implications for public policy.
当好运以非常引人注目的方式降临,比如有人中了彩票,我们大部分人不难看出来。但这种偶然因素往往以不易察觉的方式起作用,因此人们容易构建出一种逻辑,将成功描绘为必然的。然而,这些成功故事几乎都不可避免地存在误导性,而这样一个简单的事实,会对公共政策产生令人意外的后果。
Consider the history of the Mona Lisa, perhaps the most famous painting in the world. After having languished in obscurity for most of its early existence, Leonardo da Vinci’s work was pushed into the spotlight in 1911 when it was stolen from the Louvre.
来看看《蒙娜丽莎》(Mona Lisa)的历史吧。这或许是世界上最知名的一幅画。在诞生之初的大多数时间里,莱昂纳多·达芬奇(Leonardo da Vinci)的这幅画作一直默默无闻。直到1911年,它从卢浮宫被盗,方才突然成为众人关注的焦点。
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2020-09-15
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