Rising US labour productivity growth will play its part. So too will declining US wages. Hourly pay for new “two-tier hires in US auto assembly plants and elsewhere is roughly half that of the original tier (and with a fraction of the benefits). None of this would alter the calculus for the higher-tech manufacturers, such as semiconductors and robotics. At a typical Intel plant, whether in China or America, labour costs amount to just a tenth of total overheads. Tax rates, market access and the cost of land are far more important factors.
美国劳动生产率的上升将是导致单位劳动成本下降的原因之一。美国工资水平的整体下滑也将对此有所贡献。美国汽车组装厂以及其他地方付给新入职的“二级员工的时薪大约只有老员工的二分之一(福利也比老员工少很多)。不过,所有这些都不会改变生产半导体、机器人等产品的高科技制造企业的成本状况。对于一家英特尔(Intel)旗下的典型工厂来说,不论其在中国还是在美国,劳动力成本都仅占总成本的十分之一。税率、市场准入以及土地成本是更为重要的因素。
Second, the hollowing out of America’s middle class – still politely described as median income stagnation rather than “decline – is accelerating rather than slowing. According to the US Census last week, the US median household is 4.8 per cent poorer now than at the start of the recovery in 2010. Median incomes have now fallen to the pre-internet level of 1993. All of the gains of the Clinton years have been lost. The decline in the past three years follows a 3.2 per cent drop during the recession, which itself followed a shrinkage during the 2000-2007 cycle. Far from a new dawn of broad-based growth, America’s middle class decline is getting worse.
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