这一观点的主观愿望成分过重。美国苍白无力且势头再次减弱的经济复苏已走入第四个年头。通常来说,一个完整的经济周期大约要七年时间。在现阶段就相信这位“病人马上能下床慢跑的人,确实需要点乐观主义精神。
Here is the case for America’s coming manufacturing boom. First, the US is in the early stages of an energy windfall that will transform its attractiveness as a location to do business. In addition to the unfolding energy supply shock, which will lower the cost of electricity and the feed-in stock for many kinds of production, the cost of American labour looks increasingly attractive next to wage inflation in China and other emerging market economies.
支持美国制造业即将复兴的理由如下。首先,美国正处于一场意外的能源繁荣的早期阶段,这场繁荣将大大提升在美国从事制造业的吸引力。除了日益显现的能源供给冲击(它将拉低电力以及多种生产所需中间原料的成本)之外,美国的劳动力成本也因中国和其他新兴市场经济体工资水平上涨而显得愈发具有吸引力。
According to the Boston Consulting Group the US could create between 2m and 5m new manufacturing jobs between now and 2020. That would make up for between one-third and three-quarters of what it has lost in the past decade.
波士顿咨询集团(Boston Consulting Group)指出,从现在到2020年,美国在制造业领域可以创造200万至500万个新就业岗位。这相当于美国制造业在过去十年所损失掉的就业岗位的三分之一至四分之三。
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