On the upside, we are unlikely to see a sudden jump in China’s non-performing loan ratio,which could have led to a possible market panic.

从好的方面来说，我们不太可能看到中国的不良贷款比率突然飙升——不良贷款比率飙升可能会让市场恐慌。

On the downside, those unrecognised bad loans may mean that interest costs are turned intoprinciple and count towards new credit growth. Unfortunately, by definition this part ofcredit growth is not going to generate new GDP.

从不好的角度来看，这些尚未被确认的坏账可能意味着，利息成本将转变为本金并计入新增贷款。遗憾的是，按照定义，这部分新增贷款不会创造新的GDP。

We will need to watch carefully whether this ‘evergreening’ of bad loans becomes too large ashare of new credit growth. Importantly, this does not appear to be the case so far.

我们需要认真观察这种“常青坏账占新增贷款的比例是否过高。重要的是，目前这种比例似乎还不是太高。

The second reason to be a bit more upbeat about China is the sign of positive sentimentamong property developers. Results of our recent property market survey of 30 companiesin five major cities around China – which we have been running twice a year since 2010 –indicate that the industry will be in better shape by the second half of 2015, which bodes wellfor China’s growth.

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