The chances are that Mr Obama’s deal will prevail. He needs the veto-proof support of just athird of each chamber — 34 senators and 145 in the House of Representatives. Even then,however, it is no sure bet. In the next 60 days it will face the onslaught of Israel, Saudi Arabia,and every Republican presidential hopeful. In addition to viewing Iran in an apocalyptic light,each has further motives for wishing to sink the deal.
奥巴马的协议很可能获得通过。该协议只要分别获得参众两院三分之一议员(34名参议员和145名众议员)的支持,就不怕遭到否决。然而即便如此,它也不是板上钉钉的事情。未来60天期间,它还将面临以色列、沙特阿拉伯以及每一位共和党总统候选人竞争者的攻击。除了以世界末日的透镜看待伊朗之外,这些人还各自有其它动机希望该协议夭折。
In the case of Saudi Arabia, the logic is simple. Iran is Saudi Arabia’s chief competitor thatclaims to speak for the region’s Shia minority, a large chunk of which lives in Saudi Arabia’s oil-rich east. In a sectarian zero-sum game, anything that boosts Iran is bad.
沙特方面的逻辑很简单。伊朗是沙特的主要竞争对手,号称代表该地区的什叶派少数人群(其中一大部分生活在沙特盛产石油的东部省份)。在一场宗派冲突的零和游戏中,任何有利于伊朗的事情都是坏事。
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