That felt like enough, since the 2000s wrapped these countries in the warm embrace of rapidChinese growth, plenty of external financing, and unusually strong import growth in thedeveloped world. So, structural reform was crowded out by an intellectual emphasis on thecentral importance of balance sheets, aided by an exceptionally friendly world economy thatmade EM policymakers feel that whatever it was they were doing, it was working.
这给人的感觉是足够了,因为在本世纪头10年里,这些国家极大地受益于中国快速增长、充足外部资金和异常强劲的发达世界进口增长。结构性改革被排挤掉了,因为学术界强调资产负债表的核心重要性,而极其有利的世界经济促使新兴市场的政策制定者觉得,无论他们在做什么,他们的行动都很灵验。
Now that the global economic temperature is much colder, what we’re learning is that having astrong sovereign balance sheet is at best a necessary – but not a sufficient – condition forenjoying stable growth. A business climate that supports animal spirits is needed too, more sotoday than any time in the recent past.
现在既然全球经济温度低了很多,我们学到的教益是,拥有强大的主权资产负债表充其量是享有稳定增长的必要条件,而不是充分条件。还需要一种支持“动物精神的商业氛围,与近年任何时候相比,如今更是如此。
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