These euro bears have since had to perform what journalists call a reverse ferret. Yields on Spanish and Italian bonds are back to their lowest levels since mid-2011, Ireland looks on track to regain full market access next year, Greece has received substantial debt relief and foreign investors are starting to dip their toes back into peripheral euro zone bond markets.
此后,这些看空欧元的人不得不突然转变立常西班牙和意大利国债收益率目前已重回2011年年中以来的最低水平,爱尔兰明年有望重新全面利用债市进行融资,希腊获得了大规模债务减免,外国投资者开始重新小心翼翼地进入欧元区外围国家的债市。
It's hard now to find a senior banker or official who thinks the euro zone will break up next year. The Bank of England's latest Financial Stability Review still sees risks but these are now in the medium term. True, Citigroup still expects Greece to eventually leave the euro zone, but it has reduced the probability to 60% and pushed out its forecast time until mid-2014, which was probably as far as it could go to reverse its extreme position without looking ridiculous.
现在认为欧元区明年将解体的高级银行家或官员寥寥无几。虽然英国央行最新一期《金融稳定评估报告》(Financial Stability Review)认为欧元区解体的风险依然存在,但它目前认为这只是中期风险。不错,花旗仍预计希腊最终将退出欧元区,但它已经将这种可能性降低到60%,并将自己预测的希腊退出欧元区时间推迟至2014年年中,花旗此举或许既能让它得以扭转以往的极端立场,又不显得荒唐可笑。
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