Particularly encouraging is the growth of Spanish exports, which have matched those of Germany and contributed to a balance of payments surplus. With a fair wind from the global economy, the hope is that the euro zone can pull out of recession in the second half of 2013 once the latest fiscal measures have worked through the system.
尤其鼓舞人心的是西班牙出口的增长速度。它已经赶上了德国的增长水平,并促成国际收支实现盈余。一旦最新一轮财政措施落实到位,借助国际经济形势的东风,2013年下半年欧元区真有可能摆脱衰退。
But there is one risk often ignored by both sides: while economists tend to pay little attention to banks, policy makers are increasingly realizing that the ability of the financial system to extend credit is crucial to recovery. The Bank of England last week demanded a major review of U.K. bank balance sheets amid concerns that an impaired banking system is causing the economy to turn Japanese, starving healthy businesses of credit.
但有一个风险常被双方忽略:经济学家往往不太关注银行,而政策制定者却越来越意识到,金融系统能否提供信贷是复苏的关键所在。英国央行上周下令对英国银行业资产负债表做一次重大检讨。它担心金融系统受损会使经营良好的企业拿不到贷款,造成英国经济的日本化。
Yet there is little sign of similar anxiety in the euro zone, despite a banking system heavily dependent on central-bank funding. Even after last week's restructuring plan, Spanish banks will still require 350 billion ($455 billion) of ECB funding, creating a powerful incentive for them to continue to shrink their balance sheets, potentially hurting business lending.
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