Of course, the euro crisis isn't over. Just because the bears got it wrong in 2012 doesn't mean they won't be right eventually. Some warn the current market calm is dangerous because it might lead to renewed complacency.
毫无疑问,欧元区危机尚未结束。看空者2012年错了,但并不能仅凭这一点就说他们最终将是错的。一些人警告说,目前的市场平静局面是危险的,因为这可能导致自满情绪死灰复燃。
This is a valid concern. But in trying to assess where the risks lie, it is important to understand why the bears have been wrong so far. After all, the euro zone actually performed worse in 2012 than even the gloomiest forecaster predicted, and the Greek economy collapsed more completely than anyone believed possible.
这种担忧不无道理。但在试图评估风险所在时,有必要弄明白看空者目前为止为何都是错的。毕竟,2012年欧元区的情况实际上比最悲观的预测者所预计的还要糟,希腊经济的崩溃程度也比任何人料想的都更严重。
Yet the bears underestimated the near-impossibility of unraveling the single currency, the determination of the European Central Bank to avoid catastrophe─with its offers of unlimited support to banks and governments─and the sheer political will, in the core and the periphery, to hold the bloc together.
然而,看空者低估了欧元区解体的不可实现性,低估了欧洲央行(European Central Bank)避免欧元区解体的决心(该行承诺会向银行业和政府提供无限支持),也低估了欧元区核心国家和外围国家避免欧元区解体的强大政治意愿。
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