事实上,这一年最重要的发现,是欧元区财政困难国家在多大程度上承担了内部贬值的成本。欧元区克服了今年面临的每一场“不成功便成仁的重大政治挑战,其中不得不说的是希腊的选举。通过选举,希腊诞生了一个立志在深度衰退期间也要满足救援条件的联合政府。
So does the euro zone really still need to create a full-blown political union that commands little public support? Probably not. The key question is whether the current policy mix of fiscal discipline and structural overhauls, aided by ECB support, will deliver the growth needed to bring debts under control and create the jobs required to ensure continued political support for the euro.
那么,欧元区真的还需要创建一个公众支持率很低的全面政治联盟吗?恐怕不需要。关键在于,目前以财政约束和结构化改革为内容的政策组合,在欧洲央行的支持之下,能否带来控制债务、创造就业所需的经济增长。而唯有创造就业,才能确保欧元继续享有政治上的支持。
Where one stands on this question hinges partly on what one believes is driving the euro-zone economy.
对这个问题给出什么样的回答,一定程度上取决于一个人认为推动欧元区经济增长的因素是什么。
The pessimistic view is that the euro zone is in the grip of an austerity-induced downward spiral from which there is no sign of escape. This view─encouraged by the International Monetary Fund's analysis of fiscal multipliers and shared by some typically skeptical of Keynesianism─suggests the periphery's debts will ultimately prove unsustainable.
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2020-09-15
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