Events have so far shown the central assumption underlying the doom scenario to be flawed. Many bears assumed the scale of internal devaluation─economic adjustment via reductions in domestic wages and prices─needed to make financially stressed euro-zone countries competitive would be too great for a modern democracy to bear.
迄今为止的事态发展显示,欧元区解体观点背后的核心假设存在缺陷。很多看空者都想当然地认为,使财政紧张的欧元区国家能够具有竞争力的内部贬值,会因其需要的规模过大而令现代民主制国家难以承受。内部贬值指的是通过国内工资和价格的下调进行的经济调整。
As a result, they argued the only alternative to a euro breakup was a full-blown political and fiscal union based on a mutualization of debts and massive fiscal transfers that was probably impossible to achieve.
于是他们认为,避免欧元区解体的唯一其他方法是在共担债务和大规模财政转移的基础上建立一个全面的政治及财政联盟。而这种联盟或许是难以实现的。
In fact, the most significant discovery of the year has been the extent to which financially stressed euro-zone countries have borne the cost of internal devaluation. The euro area navigated through every major 'do-or-die' political challenge it faced this year, not least the Greek elections, which delivered a coalition committed to fulfilling the bailout conditions even in the midst of a deep depression.
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2020-09-15
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