悲观的看法是,欧元区已经陷入财政紧缩导致的下行螺旋之中,没有逃脱的迹象。这种看法受到国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)财政乘数分析的鼓舞,也是一些通常对凯恩斯主义持怀疑态度的人士的观点。依这种看法,事实将证明外围国家的债务终究是不可持续的。
The alternative view is that the euro zone is suffering a balance of payments crisis caused partly by a loss of competitiveness and fueled by doubts over the euro zone's survival. On this analysis, the removal of those doubts combined with steps to boost competitiveness will allow capital to return to the periphery and borrowing costs to come down.
另一种观点则认为,欧元区遭遇了一场国际收支危机,竞争力丧失是其中的一个原因,而人们对欧元区能否继续存在的怀疑,又让危机火上浇油。根据这种分析,如果消除这些怀疑并采取措施提高竞争力,资本就可以回到外围国家,借款成本就可以下降。
The fact that foreign investors are returning, bond yields are falling and financially stressed euro-zone countries are regaining competitiveness─albeit at a terrible price in high unemployment─suggests the optimists may be vindicated again in 2013.
外国投资者在回归,债券收益率在下降,欧元区财政困难国家在重拾竞争力(只不过付出了高失业的可怕代价)。这样来看,2013年乐观派或许会再次胜利。
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