到目前为止,这一真空一直由“美国治下的和平(Pax Americana)填补。美国卷入越战,并通过秘密轰炸行动,将战争扩大到柬埔寨和老挝,这让美国政府关于始终保证和平的干巴巴的声明不攻自破。不过,最近几十年,美国的海军基地为许多亚洲国家提供了稳定的发展环境,使得它们的经济飞速增长。然而,随着中国的崛起,亚洲缺乏一个强有力地区组织的问题日益明显。看看中日之间围绕一个无人居注日本称之为尖阁诸岛(Senkaku)、中国称之为钓鱼岛的争议吧。由于缺乏调解旧日民族主义争端的机制,中日双方只能互相攻讦。中国国内爆发了反日游行活动,海上也出现了一些可能引发战争的冲突。双方的民族主义者都叫嚣着要开战。
The new dynamic poses a dilemma for Beijing. As China grows more powerful, should it abide by what the world calls “international law? Or would it be justified – as Pankaj Mishra, the Indian essayist, suggests – to “balk at being a stakeholder in someone else’s global order? In practice, Beijing has often preferred bilateral to multilateral dialogue. One option would be to seek to impose a Chinese version of the Monroe doctrine, which declared Latin America off-limits to Europeans. Mr Mishra argues that, unlike the US, China lacks a proselytising impulse. It has never sought to impose Confucianism or communism on others. China’s neighbours, though, are unlikely to rely on Beijing’s goodwill. Vietnam, the Philippines, Japan and India have all tacked closer to the US in response to China’s rise. Washington has pledged to maintain 60 per cent of its naval power in the Pacific. Even so, Pax Americana will become less tenable with each passing year.
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