One possible outcome is that the eurozone solves its crisis by accepting deeper economic and political integration. The opposite possible outcome is that it fails to do so, whereupon it breaks up, wholly or in part. Nobody knows which possibility will materialise and in what way. We can all guess about the likelihood of each alternative. All we know is that neither survival nor disintegration is certain.
一种可能的结果是,欧元区通过推进经济与政治一体化解决了自身危机。另一种截然相反的可能结果是,欧元区未能解决危机,全面或者部分解体。没有人知道最终会出现哪一种结果,以何种方式出现。对于每一种结果发生的概率,我们可以尽情猜测。我们所知道的是,无论存活还是解体,一切都未成为定局。
Assume, for example, that a more integrated eurozone emerges, with, notably, a banking union under the supervisory control of the ECB. That would have big implications for the UK. The worst, from the UK perspective, is that financial regulations would be agreed within the eurozone and then imposed on the rest of the EU. The UK might find itself permanently outvoted. The eurozone would surely seek to ensure that the UK cannot subvert its regulations. Moreover, such common eurozone positions might end up going far beyond financial regulation as the eurozone’s integration deepens.
例如,假设欧元区变得更加一体化,而且还成立了在欧洲央行(ECB)监管控制下的银行业联盟。这将对英国产生重大影响。从英国角度来看,最坏的情况是欧元区内部将协商制定金融法规,并在欧盟其他国家推行。在投票方面,英国可能将从此处于劣势。毫无疑问,欧元区将竭力阻止英国推翻它制定的法规。而且,随着欧元区一体化加深,欧元区的“统一战线或将远超金融法规层面。
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