彼得森的基金最初似乎做到了这一点。成立前两年,MarketPsy Capital回报率达40%。
“Everything seemed straightforward, we were on the success path, he says.
他说:“当时一切似乎都很直截了当,我们走在成功之路上。
Then, in 2010, the fund lost 8 per cent. “When the market mood shifted from fear to recovery, our models didn’t catch it because they were based on fear, he says. “It was a tough time to read capital.
但到了2010年,这支基金亏损8%。他说:“当市场情绪从恐惧转向复苏,我们的模型没有把握这种趋势,因为模型还是以恐惧为基矗那是研究资本趋势的艰难时期。
Johan Bollen, associate professor of informatics and computing at Indiana University in the US, is more sceptical and offers another explanation for the poor results. “How do you filter out the garbage? he asks. “Even with 80 per cent accuracy, you could be so wrong 20 per cent of the time that it bankrupts you.
美国印第安那大学(Indiana University)信息科学及计算技术副教授约翰·博伦(Johan Bollen)对此抱有更强的怀疑态度,他对糟糕投资表现提供了另一种解释。他问道:“你如何过滤垃圾信息?即使准确度达到80%,你还是有20%的几率出大错,这足以让你破产。
Prof Bollen believes there is indeed value in looking at the broader emotional states of society on the internet. But tracking what people are writing about one specific company on social media forums is less useful. “Just because it’s relevant doesn’t mean it is predictive, he ex-plains.
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