All this helps to explain why emerging markets GDP growth, on average, should fall below 4per cent this year for the first time since 2001.
这一切有助于解释,为何今年的新兴市场平均GDP增速应该会自2001年以来首次降到4%以下。
Faced with this state of affairs, you might think countries would be falling over themselves toreform their economies: reducing barriers to economic activity, de-clogging product markets,reducing regulation, making additional effort to seek new inflows of foreign direct investment.Yet most economists and investors with any knowledge of emerging markets would only beable to name two countries which have a definable reform strategy that is being more or lessimplemented: India and Mexico.
面对这种局面,你或许会以为,新兴市场国家将竞相推行经济改革:降低经济活动门槛,疏通产品市场,减少监管,加倍努力寻求新的外国直接投资(FDI)。不过,大多数了解新兴市场的经济学家和投资者只能列出两个国家具有比较明确的改革战略、而且或多或少在执行战略:印度和墨西哥。
Why are so few countries embracing reform? To see why, you need to think back to the early2000s, when emerging economies were just, well, emerging from two decades ofintermittent financial crises. Looking back on the grim experiences of the 1980s and 1990s –crises in Latin America, Asia, Russia, Turkey and others – the biggest question at the start ofthe 2000s was ‘what on earth is it that’s making developing countries so susceptible to crisis?’And the answer seemed clear. The problem in emerging markets was overwhelminglydescribed as a problem to do with weak sovereign balance sheets: too much public debt, toomuch of it denominated in foreign currencies, and too much of it needing to be repaid too soon.
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