世界其他国家不会等待美国的预算谈判。全球变化的步伐从未如此剧烈。不管是中东的政治觉醒、中国领导人换届还是欧洲的紧缩政治,人们都完全可以说,在奥巴马第二总统任期内,今天的很多设想都将被颠覆。
There are some things he cannot change. US power is increasingly contested. The quality or otherwise of the US relationship with China will in future be the hinge of international security. As for the Middle East, it will be harder to escape its treacherous conflicts than many in Washington hope.
但有些事情他改变不了。美国权力面临的竞争日益激烈。未来美中关系的质量好坏关系到国际安全。中东则更加难以避免变化莫测的冲突,其程度之甚将远超过美国政府中很多人的期望。
Among the briefing documents soon to thud on Mr Obama’s desk will be the National Intelligence Council’s assessment of how the world might look in 2030. Some of its messages will be reassuring. Rising gas and oil production have set the US on course for self-sufficiency. Before too long, its oil exports may match those of Saudi Arabia.
奥巴马的书桌上很快将摆上大量简报文件,其中之一将是美国国家情报委员会(National Intelligence Council)对2030年世界前景的评估。其中一些信息将令人欣慰。美国油气产量增加使美国走上了自给自足的道路。不久,美国的石油出口量或将与沙特比肩。
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