欧元区真有理由乐观吗？_时事_双语阅读-查字典英语网

欧元区真有理由乐观吗？

Resolution means policies to assure a return to solvency. Solvency is an analytical concept, which itself depends on your assumptions about interest rates and economic growth and, of course, the total burden of debt. If you make unrealistically optimistic assumptions about the size of the fiscal multiplier, the global economy and the impact of structural reform on growth, you can make any debt disappear on paper. This can go on until these assumptions are falsified. But it cannot go on for ever.

危机解决意味着制定确保回归偿付能力的政策。偿付能力是一个分析概念，其本身取决于你对利率、经济增长以及整体债务负担的假设。如果你对财政乘数的规模、全球经济以及结构改革对增长的影响做出乐观得不切实际的假设，你可以让所有债务在账面上消失。在这些假设被证明虚假之前，这可以一直持续下去。但它不可能永远持续下去。

The latest dreadful confidence surveys are in line with my expectation that austerity will have a very significant negative effect on growth in 2013. The recession in southern Europe, including Greece, will probably continue at least until 2014, at which time debt to GDP ratios are likely to be similar to today’s. If you keep piling austerity programme on austerity programme for a sufficiently large number of years, then the policy might eventually work. But that’s a politically unrealistic proposition. Portugal, for example, is already cutting subsistence payments for very poor people to meet the agreed deficit targets.