“Although we continue to see economic activity in the U.S. as solid and justifying modest ratehikes, we believe the Federal Reserve is unlikely to begin a hiking cycle in this environment forfear that such a move may further destabilize markets, Mr. Gapen wrote in a note to clientson Monday.
“虽然我们继续看到,美国的经济活动相当不错,有适度加息的理由,但我们认为,出于对加息可能会进一步扰乱市场的担忧,美联储不太可能在这种环境下开始加息的进程,加彭周一在一份发给客户的简报中写道。
Fed officials may reach a different conclusion, but the shift in expectations still poses achallenge because officials have said they want markets to be ready for an increase. Byminimizing the element of surprise, they hope to minimize volatility.
美联储官员可能会有不同的想法,但预期的改变对他们来说仍是一个挑战,因为官员们曾表示,他们要让市场对加息有所准备。他们希望通过减少突然的因素来尽量减少市场的波动。
If the Fed wants to convince investors that September is still on the table, time is runningshort. The most obvious opportunity comes this weekend, when central bankers will gatherin Grand Teton National Park in Wyoming for an annual policy conference. The Fed’s vicechairman, Stanley Fischer, is scheduled to speak.
如果美联储希望说服投资者,九月份加息仍在日程之上的话,他们的时间不多了。最明显的机会是这个周末,届时央行行长们将在怀俄明州大提顿国家公园(Grand Teton National Park)举行年度政策会议。美联储副主席斯坦利·费希尔(Stanley Fischer)已被安排发表讲话。
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