Three hours a day is quite enough, wrote JohnMaynard Keynes in his 1930 essay EconomicPossibilities for our Grandchildren. The essaycontinues to tantalise its readers today, thanks inpart to a forecast that is looking magnificently right— that in advanced economies people could be upto eight times better off in 2030 than in 1930 —coupled with a forecast that is looking spectacularlywrong, that we would be working 15-hour weeks.
约翰•梅纳德•凯恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)曾在1930年的一篇短文《我们子孙后代的经济可能性》(EconomicPossibilities for our Grandchildren)中写道:“每天3小时就足够了。这篇短文现在仍吸引着读者,部分原因是一项看上去极其正确的预测:到2030年,发达经济体国民的富裕程度可能会达到1930年的8倍,还有一项看上去极其错误的预测:我们将每周工作15小时。
In 2008, economists Lorenzo Pecchi and Gustavo Piga edited a book in which celebratedeconomists pondered Keynes’s essay. One contributor, Benjamin Friedman of HarvardUniversity, has recently revisited the question of what Keynes got wrong, and produced athought-provoking answer.
2008年,经济学家洛伦佐•佩基(Lorenzo Pecchi)和古斯塔沃•皮加(Gustavo Piga)编辑了一本书,在书中,一些知名经济学家对凯恩斯的这篇短文进行了探讨。撰稿人之一、哈佛大学(Harvard University)教授本杰明•弗里德曼(Benjamin Friedman)最近重新提到了凯恩斯预测错的那个问题,并提出了一个发人深省的答案。
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