You often hear economists and investors talk thesedays about the ‘broken growth model’ in emergingmarkets. It isn’t a terribly precise term but it’s easy to see what people mean. The problem inEM is that none of the three possible sources of GDP growth – exports, or public domesticspending, or private domestic spending – have much going for them.
如今你经常听到经济学家和投资者谈论新兴市场“增长模式破产。这不是一个特别准确的术语,但我们不难看出人们所指的意思。新兴市场的问题在于,国内生产总值(GDP)的三个可能增长源头——出口、公共国内支出和私人国内消费——没有一个是强劲的。
Exports from EM are hobbled by a collapse in the growth of global trade and the related fall inworld commodity prices. Public spending growth is weak because many governments are toonervous to loosen fiscal policy, fearing a loss of sovereign creditworthiness at a time when theoutlook for capital inflows isn’t encouraging. And private domestic spending is hampered bythe fact that credit markets in many countries are in ‘post-boom’ mode: neither domesticlenders nor borrowers have much in the way of risk appetite.
全球贸易增速剧减以及相关的世界大宗商品价格下跌,重创了新兴市场的出口。公共支出增长很弱,原因在于许多政府过于紧张、不敢放松财政政策,担心在资本流入前景不妙之际丧失主权信誉。私人国内消费受到了许多国家的信贷市场处于‘后繁荣’状态的抑制:国内的贷款机构和借款者两方面都没有多少风险偏好。
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