When doom-mongers predicted that the Great Recession would lead to the vampire of 1930s protectionism rising from the dead, they may have been watching the wrong graveyard.
末世论者预言这次“大衰退(Great Recession)将导致二十世纪三十年代盛行的贸易保护主义死灰复燃,但他们的注意力也许放错了地方。
Since the global financial crisis struck in 2010, worldwide increases in import tariffs of the type seen during the Depression have been largely absent. But governments, richer with cash and regulatory power than in the 1930s, have found other ways to back their struggling producers at a time of deficient global demand. Disputes over state subsidies are spreading, the trade law to constrain them is not easy to use, and few governments can throw stones without worrying about the glass in their own houses.
自2010年全球金融危机爆发以来,基本没有出现大萧条(the Depression)时期世界各国普遍调高进口关税的情形。各国政府已经找到了其他方式为苦苦挣扎的国内企业在全球需求不足之际提供支持;相对于二十世纪三十年代,各国政府当前拥有更充裕的资金和更大的监管权力。由政府补贴引起的贸易争端日益增多,而旨在控制补贴的贸易法规运用起来却很困难。几乎没有哪国政府能对别国提起贸易诉讼而不必担心自己是否会成为反诉讼的目标。
Some interventions have been crisis-related, like the many bailouts of car and financial services industries – France continues to proffer aid to the troubled carmaker PSA Peugeot Citro?n – but others predate the global recession. China, in particular, has for more than a decade raised hackles with an aggressive state-led growth model, supporting ex-port industries with measures including direct subsidies, tax breaks, export credits, cheap land and electricity, and subsidised loans from state banks.
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